Total Cost of Ownership Evaluation and Investment Feasibility Analysis for Operational Fleet Strategy in the Manufacturing Industry

Abstract

Operational vehicle lease-or-own decisions cannot be based solely on contract rates or acquisition prices because each alternative reallocates costs and risks differently. This study evaluates vehicle operating costs, total cost of ownership (TCO), and investment feasibility for a four-wheeled operational fleet at a consumer-goods manufacturer. The quantitative case study covered all active vehicles through a census and used operational records and structured interviews. Costs were classified as fixed, variable, and overhead costs over a five-year horizon. Purchase feasibility was assessed using the simple payback period, an NPV implication for non-negative discount rates, and ±20% savings sensitivity. Aggregate annual operating costs were IDR 848,534,400 for leased vehicles and IDR 411,825,600 for owned vehicles, yielding savings of IDR 436,708,800 or 51.46%. Five-year cumulative costs were IDR 4,242,672,000 and IDR 2,059,128,000, respectively. Nevertheless, the per-alternative investment scenario IDR 150,000,000 initial outlay and IDR 12,219,054 annual savings produced a 12.28-year payback and did not recover the investment within five years. All sensitivity scenarios remained above the analysis horizon. The results show that aggregate operating efficiency is not equivalent to the feasibility of purchasing a new unit. The study contributes a decision framework that explicitly separates fleet-level and investment-level evidence. A mixed-fleet strategy is recommended: ownership for stable, highly utilized routes and leasing for flexibility and service continuity.